First of all, may I wish anyone who happens to be reading this a very happy 2015! I’m not a great one for celebrating New Year, but it seems as good an opportunity as any to spread a little goodwill around.
And now, with that little courtesy taken care of, let’s get down to business…
What will 2015 bring for self-publishing? More to the point, what will it bring for self-publishers?
Making predictions is a tricky business, of course, and a sure-fire way to invite ridicule, especially if you’re shown to be wrong. Still, I like to look into my crystal ball every so often. It helps me to feel better about an unknown future. I can deal with anything if I know what’s coming, or at least if I think I do. Not knowing, on the other hand, drives me insane. So, without more ado – what does the New Year have in store for us?
The idea that self-publishing is a reliable route to success and riches was always a little bit of comforting moonshine, enhanced by a few high-profile success stories but vastly removed from the experiences of your average self-publisher. Those of us who are somewhat sceptical by nature never really swallowed it, and were not therefore unduly disappointed. However, plenty of starry-eyed innocents have probably been crushed by the past few years, in which it’s been increasingly difficult for anyone to get more than a few pounds, or a few crumbs of recognition, as a result of their efforts.
Bad news: it’s going to get still more difficult.
Why? A few little things indicate that this is so…
VAT reform in the EU
Ironically, for legislation that was (allegedly) designed to scupper mega-retailers such as Amazon, EU VAT reform is probably going to hit small businesses the hardest (see here and here). For those who have not yet heard of this (where have you been?), the legislation means that, as of yesterday, online retailers such as Amazon cannot charge a measly 3% rate of VAT by basing their EU operations in Luxembourg. That particular loophole has been well and truly closed. Instead, VAT will be payable in the customer’s country of residence, and in some cases will be up to 27%. EBooks in the UK, for example, now cost a significant amount more than they did just two days ago; and, weirdly, while print books remain exempt from VAT, eBooks do not. The days of ultra-cheap eBooks, it would seem, are coming to an end.
It’s going to be a bureaucratic nightmare for small retailers, presumably the very people the Amazon-haters might actually wish to support (and it will, ironically, probably have the ultimate effect of reinforcing Amazon’s primacy). The bureaucracy need not overly concern those of us who work with distributors like Smashwords or ‘Zon itself (if you sell anything via your own online store you’ll probably want to die by now), but it does entail a pretty stark choice. Either keep your eBook prices as they are and watch said prices in effect go up, or put prices down and try to absorb the tax hike yourself. Neither option is particularly attractive. I’ve decided to keep prices as they are. I don’t know whether this is the right decision, or what effect it will have. Time will tell.
Kindle Unlimited
For anyone who’s been trapped in a well in recent months, Kindle Unlimited is Amazon’s new subscription service. For a monthly fee, readers have access to an unlimited number of books – or such books, at least, as are enrolled in the scheme. Good for readers, certainly, but is it good for authors? The jury’s out.
First of all, in order for your books to be eligible for inclusion, they have to be enrolled in KDP Select, whereby you make your book exclusive to Amazon for renewable 90-day periods. In return, your books will automatically be enrolled in KU, and you’ll be paid a certain amount of money every time a reader downloads your book. “Discoverability” is the key, supposedly. Who’s going to take a punt on a little-known author if they have to pay full whack? But if they are in effect getting the chance to sample your book for free, maybe they’ll give you a chance.
Well, maybe. Of course, it’s that blasted exclusivity thing that sticks in many people’s throats, including mine. Others are more upset about the fact that Amazon will in effect decide how much you get paid every time someone downloads your book. And you’ll be paid the same whether your book is 300 pages long or 10 pages long, or whether it normally costs 99p or £5.99. Amazon sets the rules, of course, and we have to play by them. Having said that, I can’t think of any other job where you’d be expected to take a pay cut for doing exactly the same amount of work.
There’s much to be said for subscription services. But the consensus seems to be that whereas other such services, like Scribd, treat authors fairly, Amazon does not. As I said, Amazon makes the rules, so they can do whatever they want. What will the outcome be for self-publishers? I don’t know. Not being enrolled in KDP Select, I probably won’t get to find out.
Ever more competition…
…and, contrary to what some doom mongers say, the competition comes not primarily in the form of tripe, but in the much more palatable form of a great many very good self-published books. We may look back on 2014 as being the year when self-publishing finally began to grow up, and when creating a well-edited, well-presented, industry-standard eBook became the default desire of most self-publishers. In any case, the point is that there are many very good books out there now. With so many excellent books to choose from, why should anyone read yours?
You might be feeling like this by now…
… but don’t get too depressed. I don’t want to ruin anyone’s New Year, and there is a silver lining. I predict that the get-rich-quick crowd will begin to leave in droves now, if they haven’t done so already. That will – hopefully – leave a core of committed, talented self-publishers who care about what they do and want to publish the best books they can.
Every rising stock grows through periods of re-evaluation, and eBooks are no exception. The bubble hasn’t burst, exactly. It’s deflated a bit, but I have the feeling that this is a temporary effect. And, lest I’ve made you miserable, here’s something to cheer you up: the incomparable Fred Astaire and Ginger Rogers, dancing to a tune that seems somewhat appropriate…
maribiella.wordpress.com 
A brilliant article, Mari. Very astute and balanced. I have to agree with it all (sighs). I’d still say there were rich pickings to be made out of comforting romances, but if one questions the idea of The Perfect Man Putting Everything Right, well…But that’s given me an idea; how about the said Perfect Man as a nightmare?
Happy New Year.
Thank you, Lucinda, and happy New Year! Quite frankly I’d like to be proved wrong on some of these predictions, but we shall see … The “Perfect Man as nightmare” idea sounds promising from a literary point of view, but less so from a commercial one, but what do I know?
Three cheers for people dropping out of the indie scene – if they were only there to get rich! I understand wanting to make a profit, but I shudder when that is the primary purpose of an “artist.” I’ve read the books of several writers who are making more money from their indie publishing than I do from my day job, and I can’t say that any of them have struck me as being anything more than competent at delivering some easily digestible entertainment. And, yes, there is clearly a market for such works, but …. Is there, or is that what people have settled for because it is more difficult to find a truly excellent indie?
Excellent analysis, Mari! A pleasure to read your thoughts. Speaking of excellent indies, when may we expect a new story from you? 🙂
Happy 2015,
-aniko
Hello Aniko, and Happy New Year!
I’ve read some of those books too, and to be fair I think that “easily digestible entertainment” is exactly what many readers want. I’m all for people reading whatever they want to read; but, of course, you make a very valid point – people can only choose from whatever is available.
Oh, another story … things are going very, very slowly at the moment. God knows whether I’ll manage to get anything ready during the coming year, If I do, I’ll send it over to you for beta reading, if that’s okay.
Thanks for commenting, and for your kind words!
I read about the new VAT policy and I became a bit worried but I feel, I shouldn’t be. I noticed that you dislike Amazon but they are looking at their benefit. A lot of people tried to game the system and Amazon took measures. I am not defending them but they allow everybody to publish, not the “choose ones”. it’s fair to give them credit.
About those who succeed in indie publishing, I think it’s either on one’s destiny or not. It’s worth however following the success stories to copy the successful indies.
I don’t dislike Amazon, Antara – I actually admire Amazon greatly, and I do indeed give them credit. However, I’m not naive enough to think that the interests of authors and those of Amazon necessarily coincide. Nor do I think that KU has much to do with preventing people gaming the system, which is an aim that I would actually support.
I’m afraid that I don’t really believe in destiny, so I don’t see that as being a deciding factor. Nor do I have much interest in copying anyone else, successful or not – I’m far more interested in doing what I do, and doing it as well as I can. But there are of course different opinions, and different approaches…
I’ve heard about the VAT thing and I’m still really confused about it all. I think I’ll have to do some more digging into it but you’ve covered some really great points in this piece. Definitely makes me glad that I’m waiting to get my novel right before I throw it out there into the masses. People will get a greatly made novel in their hands when I’m done with mine.
Hello Mandi, and thanks for visiting my blog and commenting. The VAT reforms are massively confusing, and I don’t think anyone fully understands how it will work from now on! In any case, there’s very little that the likes of us can do about it; when it comes to much of the business side of things, we’re essentially powerless. This is why your kind of attitude – waiting to get it right, the determination to come up with a quality product – is so essential. You can’t influence markets, but you can certainly influence what you put into that market. Good luck!
Ahh thank you! That does put it into perspective!